Democrats Gerrymandered California — and Their Candidate Still Tied in a District They Engineered To Win
California’s independent redistricting commission — which turned out to be neither independent nor particularly interested in fair maps — redrew the state’s congressional districts specifically to maximize Democratic advantage heading into 2026. It was one of the most aggressive gerrymanders in the country. And a Democrat in a district built for Democrats just released an internal poll showing her up by two points.
Two points. In a district she was supposed to win comfortably. In California.
Marni von Wilpert’s campaign released an internal poll showing her leading Republican Jim Desmond 48-46 in California’s 48th Congressional District — a seat she is supposed to hold easily based on the partisan composition Democrats engineered into the map. An internal poll is typically released when it contains your best news. This is von Wilpert’s best news. She’s up two in territory her party drew specifically for her to win.
Cameron Arcand captured the situation perfectly: “Correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t this one of the redrawn districts meant to favor Dems?”
It was. That’s the entire point. When a party gerrymanders a map and then runs internal polls showing near-ties in seats they engineered for themselves, something has gone catastrophically wrong with the underlying political environment. The map didn’t change. The voters did.
This is not an isolated data point. The pattern repeats across every competitive House race where Democrats have released internal polling. Their own numbers — the ones they commission from their own pollsters and release only when they believe they contain favorable information — are showing races that should be locks as toss-ups and races that should be toss-ups as lost causes.
The YouGov generic ballot that coincides with this polling is equally revealing. Democrats lead Republicans 46-42 — a four-point advantage in a poll with a D+7.5 sample. When you weight a poll seven and a half points in the Democratic direction and still only produce a four-point lead, the underlying electorate is telling you something important that the weighting is trying to obscure.
Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District delivers the same message. Elaine Luria is tied at 47-47 with incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans — a district Democrats identified as one of their strongest pickup opportunities on the map. When voters learned more about both candidates, Luria moved to 48-46. Still a tie. Still nowhere near what Democrats need in a race they designated as a priority.
The math is unforgiving. Democrats need to win the national popular vote by three to four points just to flip the House, due to how districts are drawn nationwide. They’re currently at D+4 in the best-weighted polls and D+3 in the most honest ones. They’re tied in seats built for them in their own states. Their internal polls are the optimistic version of reality.
The wave isn’t coming. Not at D+4 in a D+7.5 poll. Not at tied races in gerrymandered seats.
The numbers know it. Republican candidates in those districts should act accordingly.
BREAKING: Dolly Parton’s Cause Of Death Revealed: ‘Brief Battle’
Dolly Parton’s death came after a brief battle with cancer, her representatives revealed Tuesday.
The country music legend died Aug. 25 at Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center in Nashville. She was 80.
Parton had been admitted to the cancer center Friday, four days before her death. Her representatives confirmed the cancer diagnosis in a statement to PEOPLE but did not disclose what type she had.
“Our beloved Dolly Parton spent her life and career bringing joy, laughter, hope and integrity into everything she touched. Her unmatched generosity reached the lives of countless people whom she would never meet, yet she was always there to offer a helping hand,” the statement read.
“Whether it be the hundreds of millions of books donated through her invaluable Imagination Library or funding research that helped create a lifesaving vaccine used around the world, Dolly’s unconditional love for all people was the guiding force for her lasting impact. After bravely facing a brief battle with cancer, Dolly departed her Earthly life today at the Vanderbilt-Ingram Cancer Center surrounded by loved ones,” the statement concluded.
The “Jolene” singer had also been dealing with kidney and autoimmune issues before her death, PEOPLE previously reported.
Just days earlier, Dolly Parton opened up about her declining health and acknowledged that she had put off addressing some medical issues while caring for her husband, Carl.
“As I’ve shared in video messages throughout the past year, I am dealing with some health issues that I just didn’t pay attention to when I was watching over [my husband] Carl. You know, this isn’t the first time I’ve had to manage something like this. Back in the early ’80s, I was down for several months with female issues, and I was struggling with my weight at the time too, so it’s not like I haven’t been through hard times with my health,” Parton told PEOPLE.
Her nephew, Bryan Seaver, announced her death in an Instagram video Tuesday on behalf of the Parton and Owens family.
“My name is Bryan Seaver, son of Cassie Parton, and I’m representing the Parton and Owens family today announcing the passing of my aunt, Dolly Rebecca Parton Dean, Sister, Sis and Granny to one generation and Gigi to the next,” he says in the video.
Seaver, who served as Parton’s head of security for more than two decades, said she had asked him years earlier to deliver the announcement.
“This video announcement is something Dolly asked of me years ago, before I fully absorbed it as a future reality,” he continued. “As her head of security for more than two decades, a role my father Larry held before me, I have imagined the heaviness of this moment but haven’t truly felt it until now.”
Seaver said the moment brought immense pride and heartbreak, but he took comfort in his faith that Parton had been reunited with Carl and other loved ones.
Seaver added: “It is an honor, an honor that is mixed with absolute pride and great sadness. But sadness lies with us, not with Dolly. Dolly has lived in the light and is in the arms of Jesus, surely met by Carl, her parents and countless othe
Shocking 'truth' behind Prince Harry's decision to quit major role
Prince Harry should have "resigned in disgrace" from the board of a controversial African wildlife charity, a commentator says. James Walker makes the bombshell remark in Wednesday's episode of this publication's podcast, Daily Expresso.
He and the show's host, JJ Anisiobi, delve into the Duke of Sussex's dramatic decision to step down from African Parks. James, commenting on the controversy, said: "When you hear about this stuff and how long it's been going on for, you should be resigning in disgrace. [Harry] should be saying: 'I'm not touching that with a barge pole. That is a failed entity. We're going nowhere near it'.
"But no. He's still saying he's going to 'support their mission'. And again this Caroline Pearce, executive director of Survival International, goes on to say: 'His departure doesn't undo that record'.
"She alleged that African Parks was aware of the abuses for years, but it was only after Survival complained to Harry that the charity finally commissioned an investigation."
James added: "Well, she's got a point."
It emerged on Monday (August 24) that Harry was no longer a board member of the wildlife charity.
The conservation organisation has admitted that human rights abuses were committed by its rangers against members of the semi-nomadic Baka group in Congo-Brazzaville.
African Parks has said since that it has improved its safeguarding processes both in the Odzala-Kokoua National Park and institutionally.
Its admission followed an independent human rights investigation into allegations guards managed and paid by the charity had beaten, raped and tortured indigenous people in Odzala-Kokoua National Park.
Harry was president of the charity for six years before he became a member of its board of directors in 2023.
A spokesman for the Duke said he remains an active and avid supporter of African Parks. He added: "The Duke is proud of his 10 years with African Parks and fully supports the ongoing strengthening of its board.
"His commitment to conservation in Africa continues and he remains a supporter of African Parks’ mission."
Human rights organisation, Survival International, said it had been calling on Harry to step down from African Parks for years.
The group's director, Caroline Pearce, said in a statement: "It’s outrageous that for 10 years Prince Harry has served African Parks while the organisation has been responsible for abuse and violence against Indigenous people.
"His departure doesn't undo that record — African Parks itself must now be held accountable, and must abandon this model of fortress conservation for good."
Survival International said indigenous peoples know how best to manage their land and the idea outsiders know better is racist and colonial.
