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Jul 27, 2026

Trump-Backed House Republican Leading In Florida Race: Poll

Democrats are using what levers of power and influence they have, even as the national party is heavily in debt, to flip enough House seats in the fall midterms to retake control of the chamber.

One of the seats Democrats hoped to flip is in the red state of Florida, but new polling shows the party’s hopes are more of a pipe dream.

MAGA favorite Rep. Anna Paulina Luna holds an 8-point advantage over her likely Democratic challenger, Leela Gray, according to new internal polling released this week by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates.

The survey found that 49% of respondents said they would support Luna if the election for Florida’s 13th Congressional District were held today, compared with 41% who said they would vote for Gray.

Luna’s lead widened when voters were asked whether they were certain to support their preferred candidate. In that category, 43% said they would definitely vote for Luna, while 34% said they would definitely back Gray, giving the incumbent a 9-point advantage.

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Political analysts often view voter-certainty measurements as a stronger indicator of electoral support than a standard ballot test because they attempt to distinguish committed voters from those who remain open to changing their minds, Florida Politics reported.

The poll also found that just 10% of respondents remained undecided, suggesting there may be limited room for either candidate to significantly expand support before Election Day.

Luna was first elected to represent Florida’s 13th Congressional District in 2022.

She is now seeking her second re-election victory.

Democrats are hoping to capitalize on a political environment that has historically favored the party out of power during midterm elections.

But Gray faces an uphill battle in Florida’s 13th Congressional District following changes made during mid-decade redistricting, the outlet reported.

The revised congressional map removed southern Pinellas County from the district, including heavily Democratic areas in St. Petersburg.

The new boundaries also added some Democratic voters who had previously been part of Florida’s 14th Congressional District.

Even before the redistricting changes, Luna won re-election in 2024 by nearly 10 percentage points against a Democratic challenger who, like Gray, received significant support from national Democratic organizations.

GOP lawmakers are fleeing for the exit in droves, with many pointing to a  Congress that they argue has grown too dysfunctional and a demanding  schedule that leaves little time for their

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